The Future of Cities

I'd like your ideas on this one. I have an idea that a picture of The Future of Cities may be slowly evolving from a cloud of books and ideas and I'd like to know your views. I've put together some books and articles I've been reading lately and cannot quite figure it out, yet.

1. Peoplequake by Fred Pearce: in this brandnew book Pearce describes an emptying Europe due to demographic changes. Sure, we'll be greying but there will also be few of us left in Europe due to a dramatic drop in fertility. A country like Italy will have only 8 mln. inhabitants at the end of the century. And Germany, Spain and Greece are going in the same direction. Pearce foresees a continent run by the elderly - tribal elders.

2. The Matthew Effect: successful cities will keep on growing, less succesful ones will be drained of more people and rural areas will be totally abandoned. 'To those who have will be given even more and from those who have nothing, even what they have will be taken from them.'

3. The Great Reset by Richard Florida (out April 27). The forming of the Megalopolis - great urban conurbations that will increase in size, talent and importance. If you're not close to a succesful city, you're out of the game. Green cities will have the future. Pearce also writes about this issue- about cities also being the resolution to the environmental problems they themselves have created. The large urban centres will also determine the economy, no longer countries.

4. J.H. Crawford - Carfree Cities and Carfree Design Manual. Attractive pictures of great liveable communities without cars. Interesting utopias.

If you consider all this, also remembering Robert Kaplan's words that the European future will be in city states, then what is the picture you get? What other sources do you have to contradict these ideas or add complementary ones?

Will we be heading for thriving European, green city states surrounded by urban wasteland and deserted countryside and run by tribal elders who have turned to slow living and preserving what we have instead of inventing new things?

The feminization of cities

I am totally amazed by Fred

Pearce's new book Peoplequake. It was published beginning of February and caught my eye because of an article in The Guardian on the population demise of former east German cities. Peoplequake describes the history of eugenetics, family planning and policies and demographic shifts.

Our planet may be crowded today, but by the end of the century many countries will have shrunk dramatically in population. Countries like Italy, Germany or Greece will be practically empty.

Pearce wonders what this demographic population crash will do for the future of European cities. An interesting insight into now is the feminization of cities. Women are taking the lead (also in numbers) in how the economy of cities is being run - from public office to service jobs.

When Richard Florida writes about the creative economy and the economic reset following this present crisis, he hardly takes into account demographics. Greying and aging nations: it all sounds familiar, until you see the naked facts of shrinking populations. I wonder how we could make a creative economy work with fewer and far older people?

Economics of Happiness

An interesting article by Carol Graham of the Brookings Institute on measuring happiness for economic reasons. Compare this to the chapter on the geography of happiness (Shiny Happy Places) in Richard Florida's Who's your city?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/31/AR2009123101153.html

The war on talent is over. Talent won

The war on talent is over. Talent won. This is the slogan of the World Talent Forum in Pamplona. But leaders around the world still manage to fight our current crisis by investing in infrastructure or bailing out companies, instead of investing in talent. Just spoke to my old friend Richard Florida. He said this is not a Depression, it is The Great Reset. Our whole economic and societal systems are being reset for the creative economy. The city or region that gets the message that if you invest in the development of talent and everyone's creativity NOW , will be far ahead of everyone when the crisis is over. Is your city going to get it? Or are you trying to keep farming alive when everyone around you is building factories. 'There's something happening here and you don't know what it is, do you Mr. Jones?'