The Future of Cities

I'd like your ideas on this one. I have an idea that a picture of The Future of Cities may be slowly evolving from a cloud of books and ideas and I'd like to know your views. I've put together some books and articles I've been reading lately and cannot quite figure it out, yet.

1. Peoplequake by Fred Pearce: in this brandnew book Pearce describes an emptying Europe due to demographic changes. Sure, we'll be greying but there will also be few of us left in Europe due to a dramatic drop in fertility. A country like Italy will have only 8 mln. inhabitants at the end of the century. And Germany, Spain and Greece are going in the same direction. Pearce foresees a continent run by the elderly - tribal elders.

2. The Matthew Effect: successful cities will keep on growing, less succesful ones will be drained of more people and rural areas will be totally abandoned. 'To those who have will be given even more and from those who have nothing, even what they have will be taken from them.'

3. The Great Reset by Richard Florida (out April 27). The forming of the Megalopolis - great urban conurbations that will increase in size, talent and importance. If you're not close to a succesful city, you're out of the game. Green cities will have the future. Pearce also writes about this issue- about cities also being the resolution to the environmental problems they themselves have created. The large urban centres will also determine the economy, no longer countries.

4. J.H. Crawford - Carfree Cities and Carfree Design Manual. Attractive pictures of great liveable communities without cars. Interesting utopias.

If you consider all this, also remembering Robert Kaplan's words that the European future will be in city states, then what is the picture you get? What other sources do you have to contradict these ideas or add complementary ones?

Will we be heading for thriving European, green city states surrounded by urban wasteland and deserted countryside and run by tribal elders who have turned to slow living and preserving what we have instead of inventing new things?